| I’ve been eyeing this market mini-rally we’ve experienced of late with a bit of a jaundiced eye. Wall Street is subject to the same emotions as the rest of us (i.e. “greed/fear”) and it was on full display this afternoon as the President twittered the end of stimulus discussions for now. Since “THE MARKET” had already priced-in some kind of “free-money” deal, the notion that the “free money” might be a couple of weeks behind schedule gave a lot of folks the vapors. Predictably, after everyone looked at the ticker tape, they ran to their crank-handle telephones and, once they got Sarah’s attention and she got Wall Street on the line, shouted “SELL, SELL, SELL!!!” into the mouthpiece. Either that or they used Robinhood and clicked and swiped instead. (That was “generational humor”; if you’re young, you only got half the joke. If you’re old—like me—you got both; or maybe 1.5.) We are 4 weeks from Election Day. This means that the politics are going to be flying at us at the speed of light, sound, and smell. My standing advice EVERY election year is to ignore, to the extent possible, the political emanations (no matter where they are emanating from or how bad they stink) and to carry on with life. This is ALWAYS a very volatile period in the market; that’s why we reduced our exposure some days ago to the “very little skin in the game” level. As a personal opinion, because of the political and humanitarian stakes of the stimulus deal, I believe both sides will re-engage at some point before the election; this is for all the marbles and both sides are war-gaming and focus-grouping all the conceivable scenarios. For all my airline people, take heart: I think (again, my opinion) that there will be a deal sooner rather than later to bring you back much closer to where you were at the beginning of the year. You may think that’s easy for me to say since I left the cockpit behind over 10 years ago but, believe it: My heart is still in the airplanes, the weather rooms, and the crew lounges that were my home for almost 35 years. “Ladies and gentlemen, just a reminder: The seat-belt sign is STILL on.” As always, I pray that God richly blesses you and your family and animals! Best Wishes in Peace and Joyfulness, Kaye |
Posted in Market Commentary
